Trading Experiment Day 37: Analysis Paralysis


I may vent a little today so please forgive me. It’s one of those things that as you grow out of a habit like drinking or smoking or biting your finger nails, and you have made all of this progress and taken the time to change something, and then you see someone else do it, and your amateur side comes back alive briefly and you really want to blast that person for doing exactly what you used to do and somehow you have become so righteously indignant about it you can’t help but be pissed…

I have been doing that lately and I have to confess it…

See long long ago (like 37 days or so) I was notoriously bad at not sticking with a chart, a system really. I have told all of this to you before in the perfection posts but I was really bad about it. I would suffer a loss or a trade wouldn’t set up for a day or two and I would want to scrap the whole thing. I would literally scrap it and go back to the drawing board and try to find that next thing that fit the chart perfectly. If  I could just play with this setting and get this moving average to do this every time then I could make a perfect system. Desire for perfection will kill all of the good you already have and you won’t even know it. So I spent a lot of time playing with indicators trying without avail to get them to do what I wanted them to do. And then this happened to me…

OK another confession time, I am so sick of having to do this. In my attempts to find perfection I did a lot of out of the box things trying to get the perfect flow. And then one day it happened. I thought I had found the awesomest system in the entire world. I couldn’t lose with this system. It back tested so great. But there was one problem and I want you to see if you can spot it on the chart below.

This is so embarrassing…

-50 BB

I did a lot of work on historical charts with these bollinger band settings. it was great. every time it touched the band price went the other way. every time. And then I put it on real time and this is what I saw. In my efforts to make the bollinger bands do exactly what I wanted in the past, I totally lost all ability to trade the present. Can you believe that. That’s some BB’s with a -50 shift. Someone please explain to me why the hell that’s even possible… Great memories.

The point is. Put in the work to figure out how you can see the chart best and what the entries and exits look like and then until you have enough money to never care again, don’t change that. Find the process that works for you and then add all of the discipline you can muster to that process until you have all the money you need. This experiment has allowed me to find my place on the charts. 15m, Bombora wave indicator, Stoch, and MACD and I will learn that system back and forth and then never stop until it has produced what I need.

If you need variety, get that box of chips that’s all kinds of little bags, otherwise, stop changing everything in hopes of finding a better way, or you will end up with a -50 shift on your BB’s and wonder how you got there, and if you can ever find your way back.



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