What I’m watching for this week on Aussie Swiss
Its important for me to not get sucked into the game of “it’s gone down forever so it’s due to retrace”. That’s like saying that because I have flipped a coin 3 times and it was heads, I am due for a tails.
And the old saying goes “don’t try to catch a falling knife”
I am fighting hard this week to think like a trend trader, and not trade against it until its broken.
This is the monthly AUDCHF. Going back to 1995, this has been the dividing line so to speak. Price above it acts as support and price below it is resists.
More of the same from the weekly. 5 straight weekly bear bars straight into this support.
Daily showing very little to get excited about in terms of getting long this pair. Two days of kicking below 81 and finding buyers but follow through has been minimal at best. Strong down trendline and lots of road blocks over head.
The 4 hour gives a better look at that push below 81 and some buyers coming in at that level. Again, hard to get excited about a long here with all of the downward pressure but that candle is really interesting. A break of that trend line could get me to pay more attention this week.
The 1 hour paints the best picture for me. This is a very nice Bombora sell wave forming and I will be looking to get short this pair up in .8250-.8280 area IF it can get there soon enough to catch that confluence of bollinger band and resistance.
On my 15 min chart, the Bombora sell wave has been going for 1000+ bars so the time factor on the 15 min is getting a little long for me. I am not a seller right here. It may drop off the face of the earth here but I can’t sell. Not here. One leading tell that makes me think there is a short term buy coming up is the condensed Bollinger Bands. The volatility has been held low long enough that they have gotten very close together. This could signal a chance for the bulls to make a move. The best shorts come when the bands are wide and volatility is high.
To summarize what I am looking for this week, The long term charts show we are at an 18 year level of support. This would turn the whole picture very bearish if we were to lose this level I believe and I have to think there will be some kind of bounce here. On a shorter term outlook, the last three weeks the AUDCHF has been bought up on Sunday/ Monday to sell off nicely by the end of the week. I don’t want to sell here but the hourly gives me clue Im looking for and will want to get short up around 8250 as strong resistance and bollinger bands come in to play. Its a strong short candidate for me this week, just not here.
Have a great trading week