Aussie Swiss

What I’m watching for this week on Aussie Swiss

Its important for me to not get sucked into the game of “it’s gone down forever so it’s due to retrace”. That’s like saying that because I have flipped a coin 3 times and it was heads, I am due for a tails.

And the old saying goes “don’t try to catch a falling knife”

I am fighting hard this week to think like a trend trader, and not trade against it until its broken.

Monthly

This is the monthly AUDCHF. Going back to 1995, this has been the dividing line so to speak. Price above it acts as support and price below it is resists.

Weekly

More of the same from the weekly. 5 straight weekly bear bars straight into this support.

Daily

Daily showing very little to get excited about in terms of getting long this pair. Two days of kicking below 81 and finding buyers but follow through has been minimal at best. Strong down trendline and lots of road blocks over head.

4HR

The 4 hour gives a better look at that push below 81 and some buyers coming in at that level. Again, hard to get excited about a long here with all of the downward pressure but that candle is really interesting. A break of that trend line could get me to pay more attention this week.

1 HR

The 1 hour paints the best picture for me. This is a very nice Bombora sell wave forming and I will be looking to get short this pair up in .8250-.8280 area IF it can get there soon enough to catch that confluence of bollinger band and resistance.

15 min

On my 15 min chart, the Bombora sell wave has been going for 1000+ bars so the time factor on the 15 min is getting a little long for me. I am not a seller right here. It may drop off the face of the earth here but I can’t sell. Not here. One leading tell that makes me think there is a short term buy coming up is the condensed Bollinger Bands. The volatility has been held low long enough that they have gotten very close together. This could signal a chance for the bulls to make a move. The best shorts come when the bands are wide and volatility is high.

To summarize what I am looking for this week, The long term charts show we are at an 18 year level of support. This would turn the whole picture very bearish if we were to lose this level I believe and I have to think there will be some kind of bounce here. On a shorter term outlook, the last three weeks the AUDCHF has been bought up on Sunday/ Monday to sell off nicely by the end of the week. I don’t want to sell here but the hourly gives me clue Im looking for and will want to get short up around 8250 as strong resistance and bollinger bands come in to play. Its a strong short candidate for me this week, just not here.

Have a great trading week

TradingLife:OwnIt

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One thought on “Aussie Swiss

  1. I can see this one is already messing with your head. Your gut is right, it’s due for a bounce. Your fear is right too, don’t catch a falling knife.
    My take – you’ve got 5 waves down from 11/7/13- a completed pattern by itself, so your caution on selling is warranted. My oscillators see your short term sell, but it suggests it would result in a double bottom at worst. The bounce you’ve identified after the resolution of any potential sell move, to .8250-.8280, is a logical target. I like .8318. In my opinion, the bounce to this area would stop there and resume the downtrend to new lows only if it is based on that 5 wave down pattern. But that long term support at .81 is big man – your gut knows it is, and the candle says it is. I think a bounce up would be a part of THAT bigger, long term pattern you’ve identified- which I agree is incomplete. If so, the bounce up would blow through .8250 and head on up to .8678 as its own 5 wave pattern. All the shorts at the end of the week are going to help it blow UP when their stops get tripped. Long term support means a bounce up to long term pivots. If the Monthly trend is still down after the shorter term trends make it to .8678 but can’t close above .8678, then I’d say go for the big, final sell. My target – .7746.

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