The Predicting Game


We must stop trying to predict the unpredictable.

We must.

As people, this is important. As traders, this is imperative.

Why is this important to me and why should it hopefully be important to you? Because it’s the only way we survive the game.

I see it all over the place. All of these big charts and big lines and big circles and big ideas and… big risks.

Prediction is a dangerous game. It opens us as traders up to a chain of events that we do not want. Here’s the chain:

  1. A prediction about this moment’s price action is made based on past price action
  2. An OPINION is formed based on that prediction
  3. Now that you have an opinion AND a prediction attached to something, the ego is involved and you must be right on the outcome or you personally become wrong. The outcome is tied to you.
  4. When this happens, we get attached because we can’t harm the ego and risk of ego is always bigger than risk in our trading plan.

See how it works? Maybe it isn’t explained very well but I hope it comes across. What we don’t realize is that we risk in the current moment, we don’t risk on the past, or even the future, we risk on the present. What is happening RIGHT NOW that shows me the risk?

When we make a prediction, we want to be right, na maybe we absolutely need to be right or we aren’t smart enough or we can’t do this or we ______________ (fill in the blank).

What if we could let that all go. What if we could put all that down and be present in the moment. I will be sharing some works from the Stoics some time soon that talk about controlling what we can and worrying about nothing else.

Follow price action, don’t try to lead it. It doesn’t turn out well.




One thought on “The Predicting Game

  1. Nice post and very timely as I’ve just read James Clear’s latest post on Inversion and the Stoics and am interested in your next articles. Of course with Inversion it’s causing me to look at the complete opposite argument of what you wrote about here, as if I were looking at the action from both bullish and bearish perspectives

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